Experts believe Al Burhan’s government will fail to regain AU membership

On Wednesday, experts predicted that the efforts made by the Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan to lift the suspension of Sudan’s membership in the African Union (AU) will fail during next Friday’s summit.

The experts stated that the upcoming summit will maintain Sudan’s membership suspension, because the circumstances that prompted the issuance of the decision still apply, at a time when the Sudanese Military government is intensifying its efforts to restore Khartoum’s membership in the (AU).

The African Union is expected to discuss several issues at its summit, including the election of a new president for its Commission, to succeed Moussa Faki Mahamat, as Mahmoud Ali Youssef, the former Foreign Minister of Djibouti, Raila Amolo Odinga, the former Prime Minister of Kenya, and Richard J. Randriamandrato, the former Foreign Minister of Madagascar, are competing for the position.

The Sudanese Army, along with its allies, is seeking to help its government obtain the right or legitimacy to represent Sudan in the African Union instead of the civilian government expected to be formed in the areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Maintaining the Membership Suspension

Regarding the subject, political analyst Ali Al-Dali expected that the membership suspension in the African Union won’t be lifted, due to several obstacles, most notably of which is the continuation of the war and the formation of a parallel government in areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces.

Al-Dali indicated in a statement to (Erem News) that Al-Burhan had previously made several moves during the recent period, including visits to a number of influential countries in the African Union, as a preemptive step to urge them to stand with Sudan during the upcoming summit to lift the suspension of its membership.

“The Port Sudan government has done everything within its grasp to lift its membership suspension in the African Union, starting with Al-Burhan’s foreign visits up to his speech two days ago about forming a civilian government. However, it is clear that there are major obstacles during the upcoming African summit,” according to Ali Al-Dali.

He explained that talking about forming a civilian government in Port Sudan won’t be enough to push the African Union to lift the suspension.

Al-Dali pointed out that the parallel government expected to be formed in the areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces will be a major obstacle to the Port Sudan government’s efforts seeking to regain Sudan’s membership in the African Union.

He added that the parallel government will dispute the claim of legitimacy of Al-Burhan’s government aiming to represent Sudan in regional and international organizations, which will thwart its plans to lit the suspension.

He mentioned that “The most significant obstacles are the continuation of the war, in light of international and regional demands to stop it,” expecting that African countries will maintain the decision to suspend Sudan’s membership in order to use it as a leverage to prompt the parties to return to negotiations.

Al-Dali added that “The US sanctions imposed on the leaders of the Sudanese Army will also affect the decision to lift the suspension of Sudan’s membership, because the African Union’s decision is linked to international positions towards Sudan,” according to him.

International Developments

Political analyst Ali Al-Dali pointed out that there are international and regional movements to hold a major international meeting in conjunction with the African summit, in order to discuss the situation in Sudan, expecting that the results of this meeting will affect the decision to lift the suspension.

He continued, “There are a number of genuine and influential countries in the African Union that still adopt a neutral position towards the Sudanese crisis, and it is likely that they will vote within the African Union in favor of extending the suspension.”

He explained that “if Al-Burhan wishes to lift the suspension of Sudan’s membership in the African Union, he must overcome these obstacles and sincerely seek to stop the war instead of talking about forming a civilian government,” indicating that the world is waiting to end the suffering in Sudan.

Last Sunday, Al-Burhan’s government announced the introduction of a “Roadmap to prepare for the post-war phase and resume the comprehensive political process” that includes “Launching a comprehensive national dialogue for all political and societal forces, in addition to welcoming everyone who adopts a patriotic position and sides with the patriots, forming a Technocratic government of independent patriots to resume the tasks of the transitional period, assisting the State in the matter of overcoming the consequences of the war, making the necessary amendments to the Constitutional Declaration, in accordance with the national and societal forces’ approval, and then choosing a civilian Prime Minister to manage the State’s executive body without interference.”

Experts shared, in statements to (Erem News), that Al-Burhan seeks, through the proposal of this roadmap, to lift the suspension of Sudan’s membership in the African Union (AU), and to grant the Port Sudan Authority the legitimacy to represent the country in the Union, before the announcement of the civilian government expected to be formed in the areas controlled by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Membership Stipulations

For his part, journalist and political analyst Abu Obeida Barghouth ruled out the possibility of the African Union lifting the membership suspension because Sudan has yet to meet the conditions, as the reasons for issuing the suspension decision still exist.

Barghouth told (Erem News) that there are new reasons added to those on which the African Union based its suspension decision, indicating that the coup against the Constitutional Declaration carried out by the Military component on October 25th, 2021, before the ongoing war broke out, which caused a comprehensive constitutional collapse in the country.

He stressed that according to the regulations and constitution of the African Union, Sudan in its current situation isn’t qualified to be a member. He continued, “Until further notice, the membership will remain suspended; Because Sudan, in its current circumstances, isn’t qualified to meet the conditions for membership in the African Union.”