Al-Burhan and the fall of the Russian-Iranian alliance in Syria Salah Jalal

The curtain fell on Al-Assad family’s rule in a march from Qardaha to Damascus after (52) years of absolute control over the Presidential Palace; whereas Hafez al-Assad -the father- ruled for (29) years, Bashar -the son- was in power for (24) years, until Sunday morning, when news outlets indicated that he left Damascus for a Russian base on the northern coast.

The rule of Al-Assad family began in the name of the nationalist movement (The Ba’ath Party), but it quickly turned into a totalitarian, oppressive rule that granted absolute control to Alawite movement, to which the Al-Assad family belongs.

The historic capital of the Umayyads was taken over by the Syrian opposition factions, bringing to mind the fall of the Abbasid capital, Baghdad, in (2003) following the American forces’ invasion, ending the rule of the late Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

The Syrians celebrated, rejoicing in their newfound freedom in the Umayyad Mosque square, chanting and firing volleys of bullets into the air, marking the beginning of a new era in Syria after half a century of Ba’ath rule.

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Why did Al-Assad -the son- fall so easily? The legitimacy of the Syrian regime has been eroded since the outbreak of armed confrontations in (2011), in which the Army stood firm defending the Al-Assad’s regime with the support of three main factors: Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Corps led by Iran’s strongman in Iraq and Syria, Qasem Soleimani. In addition to the most important factor; the direct Russian intervention to protect Al-Assad regime.

The Syrian opposition factions moved after a period of stagnation during the past three weeks, brilliantly utilizing the period following the strikes Israel directed at Hezbollah in Lebanon and the American strikes directed at Iran’s supporters in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, as well as the exhaustion of the Russian Army in the Ukrainian war.

Certainly, what took place in Damascus is part of international arrangements in which Türkiye played a major role to facilitate salvation from under the oppressive Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, taking advantage of the preoccupation of his main allies with their internal crises [Iran + Russia].

One of the biggest mistakes that Bashar Al-Assad made was his refusal to enter into a political process after his progress in the civil war, to carry out comprehensive security and political reform in which the Ba’ath Party would be part of the political process. However, stubbornness, greed, the fate of history and its cunning nature squandered Bashar Al-Assad’s final opportunity, and he was consigned to the dustbin of history.

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With the fall of Bashar Al-Assad, and amidst the international community with a postponed commitment following the invasion of Baghdad in (200), to the Sunni Crescent countries headed by Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, citing the necessity of establishing a regular rule in Iraq with a Shiite majority, and in Syria with a Sunni majority. As international overlaps disrupted this internationally agreed upon entitlement after the fall of Saddam Hussein as part of the arrangement equation for the Levant region, and with the recent fall of Bashar Al-Assad [Alawite rule] that was established by the Al-Assad family with a Shiite minority, will some stability return to the Levant region! And will the natural majority rule in Syria within a democratic framework that respects the rights of Christian, Shiite and Druze minorities!

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Currently, the party faced with loss is General Al-Burhan and his allies:

From the Islamists who bet on replicating the experience of resisting Bashar Al-Assad and confronting the civil war in alliance with Russia and Iran, but it has now become clear that General Al-Burhan and his allies from the Islamists have woven the right alliance at the wrong time, as Iran and Russia are suffering from pressing internal circumstances that don’t allow for an opportunity to support any ally, and General Al-Burhan will never be closer and more beneficial to them than Bashar Al-Assad, whom they were unable to save.

With the fall of Al-Assad regime, the last pillar in the axes of the Arab resistance front collapsed, which had previously lost the Iraqi Army, followed by the Yemeni Army, then the Libyan Army, and recently the Syrian Arab Army joined the procession of martyrs in the era of the fall of armies and the dominance of militia rule in the Middle East region.

I expect the fall of Bashar al-Assad will be followed by a comprehensive reorganization process in the Middle East region, according to which Gaza and Yemen wars will come to an end, in addition, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen will be dismantled or contained, dismantling terrorist cells in the Horn of Africa (Al-Shabaab) and a decisive confrontation with Boko Haram in the Sahel and Sahara will take place. in addition to reorganizing international influence by limiting Russia’s expansion in West Africa and repositioning Western powers led by the United States in that region.

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In Conclusion

With the fall of Al-Assad, the weakness of Russia and Iran as well as their preoccupation and exhaustion with internal and regional conflicts became clear; thus, the dismantling of the axis they supported in the region.

General Al-Burhan and the Islamists wove the right alliance at the wrong time, and caught the wind by relying on a Russian-Iranian alliance that would restore the balance they lost in the ongoing civil war.

I believe after the fall of Bashar Al-Assad, Al-Burhan will seek to sign a peace agreement to stop the war in Sudan as soon as possible before it proves to be too late, so as not to make the same mistake as Bashar Al-Assad, which cost the latter his presidency and the embrace of the Presidential Palace, thrusting him into the cold exile that awaits him.