Yasser Al Atta’s statements turn SAF into a regional threat

In a development that is currently considered one of the most dangerous statements issued by a Sudanese military leader since the outbreak of the war, Lt. Gen. Yasser Al-Atta, the Assistant to the Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), announced that Amdjarass Airport as well as the N’Djamena Airport in the State of Chad have become “two legitimate military targets” for the Sudanese Army.

This statement, which was publicly issued and in front of the media, carries great legal, diplomatic and military repercussions on Sudan, and involves the State in the midst of a new crisis, not only at a domestic level, but at a regional and international levels as well.

First: Legally … An Explicit Threat to the Sovereignty of a State:

Al-Atta’s statements represent a clear violation of International Law, specifically:

The principle of national Sovereignty stipulated in the United Nations Charter

The principle of refraining -in their international relations- from the threat or use of force against other States (Article 2 (4) of the Charter)

An explicit violation of the good -neighborly agreements and bilateral relations with Chad. Additionally, this threat is more significant from a legal point of view, as it is issued by an individual who exercises power from an unconstitutional position, as Al-Atta is part of a coup authority that took over following the (October 25th, 2021) coup, which renders his threats lacking in any legal capacity or international recognition.

Second: Diplomatic … An Unprecedented Embarrassment for Sudan

At the international level, this statement corners Sudan in the position of a potential aggressor, even if the field reality reflects more complex security interventions.

Chad, despite its tense relationship with some Sudanese parties, has -relatively- maintained a diplomatic discourse. Currently, however the State might find itself forced to respond, and it has:

Filed an official complaint to the Security Council.

Called for regional support to deter the Sudanese threat.

Rearranged its alliances with parties the State believes can balance against the Sudanese Armed Forces.

The most dangerous factor being that Chad hosts hundreds of thousands of displaced persons and Sudanese refugees, it has become a decisive human, relief and strategic depth, especially for states such as North Darfur and El-Fasher, which depend on its balancing mechanisms on military leaders of Chadian origin, in addition, Chad is considered a solid supporter in regards to protection.

In other words: Sparking any tension with Chad, may produce catastrophic pressure on El-Fasher and western Sudan.

Third: Military … A Dangerous Deterioration:

Al-Atta’s statement can be considered as an attempt to justify the shelling or direct targeting of Chadian facilities, which may lead Chad to:

Close its borders with Sudan or even prompt the State to directly or indirectly support the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), in response to this threat.

Claim precedence and provide the State with the plausible argument for the use of military force in border areas or the Sudanese depth, in response to these statements that amount to the level of declaring war.

Any confrontation with a State like Chad, in light of the military exhaustion plaguing the Sudanese Army, will constitute a losing gamble as well as a political and military risk, that could very well create a regional front that Sudan has no hope of confronting.

Fourth: Politically … A Reflection of the Leadership’s Shortcomings

A statement of this magnitude, issued by an assistant to the Army Commander-in-Chief, without an official announcement or a strategic statement from the State, reflects two things:

The chaos surrounding the military decision within the ruling establishment of the coup authority, utilizing the media as a platform for improvised threats without appreciation for national interests and at a time when Sudan suffers from international isolation and internal division, as such statements undermine any attempt to introduce the Sudanese Army as a responsible national force and only proves what we reiterated numerously in regards to the Army’s lack of any sense of institutionalization and its transformation into a hijacked force weaponized by a criminal organization such as the Islamic Movement.

The statements issued by Al-Atta weren’t merely an opinion … but a political time bomb, carrying a direct threat to Sudan before affecting Chad.

Its a pivotal moment that must be analyzed seriously:

Because it reflects how a single word can ignite a regional conflict

And because its issued by an illegitimate and illegal coup authority.

And because it threatens existing human and military balances, especially in areas such as El-Fasher and Darfur

Does the military understand that the danger is no longer limited to the battle in Khartoum … but further extends to the reckless words uttered by irresponsible officers, reaching the borders of States, as well as affecting human lives?