SAF’s withdrawal from Al-Jazeera was intended to pave the way for violations committed in the name of RSF

The Commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Mohamed Hamdan Daglo’s latest address, following an absence of nearly three months, invoked rather important discussions, i.e. over the course of its two years, the ongoing war has witnessed strange shifts in terms of alliances. As those who were fighting against the Central government and were allies of the Rapid Support Forces (namely; the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and the Justice and Equality Movement); are now fighting alongside the government through an alliance in which self-interest plays a primary role, battling against the Rapid Support Forces, because the latter’s interests conflict with those of the Central government.

During the war, a military group, “the Sudan Shield Forces,” reneged on their alliance with the de facto government five months after the outbreak of the war, in a development orchestrated by SAF’s leadership, to fight against the Rapid Support Forces. The aforementioned armed group then relinquished its name. Less than a year later, the Sudan Shield Forces chose to return and uphold its former alliance with the Sudanese Army after fulfilling its mission, committing horrific crimes in Al-Jazeera region under the name of the Rapid Support Forces, as well as upon its return to the Sudanese Army’s fold and in the same region, Al-Jazeera.

Moreover, because impunity is a hallmark of our political reality, the Sudan Shield Forces and its leader, Abuagla Keikal, were welcomed by the Rapid Support Forces on their journey towards it, and by the Sudanese Army on their return journey. We are well aware that the Sudanese Army dispatched him. Unfortunately, with both journeys, Abuagla created an imbalance in regards to the military power. Therefore, it wasn’t surprising that the Sudanese Army withdrew from Al-Jazeera region and its environs, setting the stage for the commission of these heinous crimes in the name of the Rapid Support Forces, mobilizing the international community against the latter. However, the international community discovered this deception tactic after Keikal’s return to ally himself with the Sudanese Army, once again, as he continued to perpetuate the same crimes.

Currently, a new alliance has been formed between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) led by Al-Hilu. This is a military-political alliance. In his latest speech, Hemedti announced the launch of the alliance’s upcoming military campaigns, this time under the banner of “The Secular State we want for Sudan,” instead of fighting his previous battles in alliance with the Army under the banner of “Sharia, Sharia, and we won’t perish, Islam before food.” Which represents a “truly radical change” in Hemedti’s positions, a shift from one extreme to the other, at least at this stage!

The final issue: Hemedti’s speech contained no political details, except for a few broad outlines regarding Kenya’s democracy. This comes within the context of delivering a gesture of gratitude and appreciation. He could have announced a diplomatic campaign to persuade African countries to support his new alliance and his planned new government. Another point of significant importance is that Hemedti didn’t address the date and location of the formation of the parallel government, the “Peace Government.” This wasn’t an oversight on his part, perhaps he is seeking to mitigate the positions announced by regional and international parties, even though the alliance had already set the stage for the government’s announcement.

In any case, the coming period will witness a military escalation that promises to be fiercer, for several reasons, including the existence of a new military alliance, an attempt to preempt the fall season, perhaps to seize advanced positions before announcing the new government. As I mentioned briefly in a prior occasion, El-Obeid might very well be the next city the new alliance’s army will enter!