Al Burhan thwarts Hamdok’s call to stop the war in Sudan

The chances of success of the initiative launched by Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the country, through a meeting between the Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and the Commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Mohamed Hamdan Daglo “Hemedti”, with regional and international presence; are diminishing.

Political analysts expect that Hamdok’s initiative to stop the ongoing war in the country for nearly two years, will inevitably be faced with an obstacle represented in the Sudanese Army Commander’s objection, as the latter had previously refused to respond positively to all regional initiatives and international efforts in this regard.

Less than a month after the outbreak of the war between the Sudanese Army and the Rapid Support Forces, the former Prime Minister took the initiative to make direct contacts with the Commanders of both parties to the conflict, inviting them to negotiations to stop the war, however, at that time the invitation failed to invoke any response from the Sudanese Army leadership.

At a later date, Hamdok headed the Coordination-body of the Democratic and Civil Forces (Tagadom), the largest anti-war political and military coalition in the country, before a group left to join the Sudan Founding Alliance bloc, to form the Government of Peace and Unity.

Political analyst Hatem Elias told (Erem News) that the success of the former Prime Minister’s call to hold a meeting that includes the two warring parties seems to depend primarily on the leverage of international support that can endorse this initiative.

He added that Hamdok, who currently heads the Civil Democratic Alliance of the Revolutionary Forces (Sumoud), is fully aware that his call alone won’t be sufficient to successfully bring together the warring parties, therefore, he suggested that the meeting be held under the umbrella of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC), in an effort to benefit from regional and international pressures to push Al-Burhan and Hemedti to sit at the negotiating table face to face and stop the war.

Elias believed that the success of the former Prime Minister’s call or initiative is linked to the availability of political will from both parties to the conflict, especially the “Port Sudan government”, noting that the Commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), “Hemedti”, had always displayed readiness in response to any negotiation that would lead to an urgent end to the war, and didn’t reject any initiative in this regard, however, the intransigence always came from the Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Army, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan.

If Hamdok’s initiative received a response from Egypt, it will certainly find acceptance and be welcomed by the Port Sudan government, according to political analyst Hatem Elias.

A prominent political leader in the Sudan Founding Alliance (Tasees) stated that the chances of the former Prime Minister’s call to establish peace through an international and African meeting eliciting a response, are very slim, and it will undoubtedly be met with rejection from the Port Sudan government, which doesn’t wish to implement any negotiated peaceful solution to stop the war.

The leader, who preferred to remain anonymous, believed that Hamdok is closer to the groups that agreed to form a government with a secular, democratic, decentralized regime, as the aforementioned is an ideal consistent with the same agreements and charters that he had previously concluded with Al-Hilu’s faction and Abdul Wahid Al-Nur’s Movement during his chairmanship of the (Tagadom) Coordination-body.

He pointed out that all regional and international attempts to entice the Sudanese Army Commander-in-Chief to contribute to stopping the war have been exhausted, and the only possible avenue is for the patriotic forces to work to end this war by forming a government that expresses the aspirations of the Sudanese people.

For his part, political analyst and media personnel, Al-Jameel Al-Fadil, shared his believe that the current events, following the establishment of the “Sudan Founding Alliance (Tasees)” and its parties signing -in the Kenyan capital “Nairobi,” the Political Charter and Transitional Constitution, to form “the Government of Peace and Unity” in the country, these steps have practically exceeded the stage of calls and appeals to what was known as the two parties to the conflict.

According to Al-Jameel Al-Fadil, what took place in “Nairobi” during the past two weeks formed a new reality that cannot be ignored in favor of recreating the previous situation, as it has exceeded the approach and method that “Hamdok” and his alliance have been utilizing when dealing with developments for the last two years.

Al-Fadil stated that the former Prime Minister’s continued reliance on the international and regional communities, as the sole means to resolve the complex and complicated crisis in Sudan at the same time, is an option that events have far surpassed.

Political analyst, Al-Jameel Al-Fadil, expressed his belief that it wouldn’t be understandable for the leader of the Rapid Support Forces, “Hemedti”, and the leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North, Abdel Aziz Adam Al-Hilu, to renege on their agreements and covenants, the ink of which has yet to dry, and follow “Hamdok’s” call, as similar meetings have been held before in the first and second stages of the Jeddah platform and in the Manama initiative as well.

He pointed out that the massive demonstrations that took place in a number of cities in the Blue Nile, Kordofan and Darfur regions, strongly supporting and backing the formation of a “Government of Peace and Unity” throughout the country, make it difficult for the leaders of the “Sudan Founding Alliance (Tasees)” to respond to Hamdok’s request wrapped in the preambles of the “UN Security Council” and the “AU Peace and Security Council”.

Al-Fadil continued to share his belief that the train of history has already begun to pass the station of such -somewhat- ideal solutions.

In the aftermath of launching the initiative, “Hamdok” announced that he would immediately begin communicating with the Sudanese military and civilian parties, in addition to mobilizing regional and international support to implement these steps.

In his initiative, former Sudanese Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok called for confidence-building measures and creating a climate to end the war, by agreeing on effective ceasefire monitoring mechanisms, including the deployment of a regional and international peace mission.