Al Burhan and the dangers of dancing on the heads of snakes

Salah Shu’aib

Since his appearance on the political scene, Al-Burhan has relied on the policy of evasion to build another dictatorship, instead of complying with his Sovereign duties of protecting the transition of the December revolution and then leading the country to elections alongside the civilian component, in accordance with the Constitutional Document’s clauses.

The ongoing war ignited by Al-Burhan’s Army with the assistance of the National Congress Party (NCP) -in addition to freeing him from that particular duty- was the best way for him to attain his father’s dream. However, on the other hand, he is fully aware that his alliance with the Islamists is temporary, and if he wins the war, he will be left with no choice but to dispose of them before they sacrifice him. Therefore, its an alliance of evasion and deceit between him and the Islamists, which necessitates a high degree of caution when it comes to the conspiracies of the present -course of the war, as well as the future that follows its end if the Sudanese Army managed to win the war, as the allies under the banner of “Dignity” imagine.

The two parties understand each other well. Al-Burhan and his supporters within the Sudanese Army’s ranks possess enough experience with the Islamists to grant them extensive understanding of the adventurous Islamists’ cunning nature, as they cooperate with him in order to achieve a phase of victory followed by a phase of asserting hegemony over power in the country. These cunning Islamists understand Al-Burhan perfectly, because they have monitored his behavior and psychology, they are well aware of his movements, especially since their members in the Military Intelligence and the Security Service were in possession of Al-Burhan’s entire file since he was a young officer.

The interests of Al-Burhan – the Islamists, on the other hand, doesn’t mean in any way that he has a large number of officers who aren’t affiliated with the Islamists to tip the balance in his favor. Naive individuals tend to view the Sudanese Army as a national institution;however, they fail to take into account that the Sudanese Army has been operating in a manner similar to a farm, producing Islamist chicks for nearly three decades.

Al-Burhan, who has gained a temporary advantage by outmaneuvering civilians, as well as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), believes that the policy of dancing on the heads of snakes will achieve his goal. He has yet to learn from the experience of his successor, Al-Bashir, who has been manipulating his Islamist brothers, whose plots he has learned well. Abroad, Al-Bashir has tried his best to alternate between playing regional schemes with the UAE – Saudi Arabia on the one hand, and against the Qatar-Iran axis, on the other hand. Far too many times, we have seen him comply with the United States while heading east in his last days to ask the Russians for full protection for his regime.

However, in the end, the Islamist dictator lost everyone, locally, regionally, and internationally. As (Gosh) deceived him, conspired against him, and the former failed to gain the loyalty of Qatar or the UAE, in addition, Putin didn’t offer him any protection. Al-Bashir’s evasive tactics ended with the fall of his regime when the revolutionaries pressed on the city gates and penetrated the spacious area in front of the Military’s General Command Headquarters after the Security Service members failed to change the outcome. Meanwhile, Hemedti resided in (Al-Markhiyat), closely monitoring the situation, refusing to comply with Sheikh Abdul-Hayy’s fatwa to kill a third of the people.

All those scenes were consequences of Al-Bashir’s policy of evasion, which -still- failed to convince Al-Burhan of the necessity of adopting a different policy that would guarantee his safety. After choosing to side with civilians, he continued to respond to their demands for dialogue, however, in the dark, he plotted against their desire to achieve the long-awaitedtransition, until their sit-in was dispersed. We witnessed his conspiracy with (Terik) to close the main port along with the road linking it to the rest of Sudan, in addition, without Hamdok’s knowledge, he met with Netanyahu in order to secure international protection.

In the palace rooms, he was planning with the Armed Movements to create a base that would help him carry out the coup. When he failed to form a government, he returned to the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) to hinder their progress with the Framework Agreement, while at the same time planning to prepare for the conspiratorial war against the revolution after reaching an agreement with the Islamists in regards to this matter.

Throughout the battles against the Rapid Support Forces, he conspired with the Islamists to establish a plan to demonize the (FFC), oppress its leaders, and describe them as agents and traitors. Later, he abandoned all of the aforementioned efforts in order to appease the Civil Democratic Alliance of the Revolutionary Forces (Sumoud) following the dissolution of (Tagadom). In the aftermath, you find him angering the Islamists by stating that they shouldn’t even aspire to restore their rule over the “remains” of the citizens. However, when he is subjected to harsh criticism, he satisfies the brothers of Nusaybah by sharing that everyone who participated in the “War of Dignity” will be part of the government he intends to form after his Constitutional amendments that guaranteed him a position as the fourth dictator in the history of the State.

In addition to the aforementioned examples of the policy of evasion that Al-Burhan adopted in order to remain in power, there are numerous others that show that the man doesn’t care about the significant consequent of always being the victor, regardless of what this policy creates in terms of humanitarian disasters for the Sudanese people. He doesn’t take into account the significant danger associated with his policy that threatens to divide the country, instead he would rather concern himself with his immediate safety until he emerges from these tragedies victorious, and then scores at least five or ten years of monopolizing power.

It is clear from the amendments made to the Constitutional Document that Al-Burhan established an authority that fulfills his desires, not that of his allies, who he wishes to take along the path with him to share the post-war situation. 

However, can his Islamist allies -in particular- guarantee that they will get everything they desire while they are in a saddle position? And what are the guarantees that he won’t sacrifice them later on, especially since they realize that the region as well as the world have been working against them for some time, and won’t allow them to reinstate their power through a military clown?

If we were to take a moment to imagine that Al-Burhan will inevitably defeat the Rapid Support Forces, and then seize control of the country; then the great challenge facing him -represented in the Islamists- won’t allow him the ability to continue utilizing the policy of evasion and deceit, which they excel at because it is at the core of their ideology. Then regional and international efforts will intensify aiming to dispose of them as a condition for supporting Al-Burhan in resuming neutral relations with him, if the victory of Al-Baraa’s Army is guaranteed, and this is a scenario many observers are ruling out.

I believe that the Islamists will remain vigilant against Al-Burhan’s evasiveness in light of his presidential dream, and for his part, he will remain aware of the weight of their influence, which keeps the two parties in a permanent state of mistrust that incites a clear separation, either sooner or later.