An expected new Envoy.. Will Washington succeed in stopping the war in Sudan?
Experts speculated that the new American Envoy will succeed in achieving a breakthrough in regards to the Sudanese crisis, which will in turn stop the war and restore stability to the country teetering on the brink of disintegration.
A new American Envoy for Sudan is expected to be appointed next January, after the Congress approved the appointment proposal two days ago.
The US Congress approved the proposal to appoint a Special Presidential Envoy for Sudan for a period of two years, and the decision was issued under (No. 7204).
According to the decision, the appointment is made by the president based on the advice and approval of the Senate, to begin no later than (90) days from the issuance of the decision; meaning that the appointment will take place during the era of the new president, Donald Trump, whose term will begin on January 20th.
The new Envoy will replace the current Interim Envoy, who was appointed in February, without achieving any significant breakthrough on all levels; as the Sudanese Army Commander-in-Chief rejected all negotiating initiatives presented by Perriello.
According to the US decision, the new Special Envoy will lead US diplomatic efforts related to Sudan, with a focus on supporting political efforts to resolve the conflict and address the humanitarian crisis resulting from the war.
The decision stipulates that the Special Envoy will report directly to the Secretary of State, with routine consultation with the relevant congressional committees to keep them informed of developments.
The decision identified the priorities of the new Envoy as “Putting forth efforts to end the war that has been raging in Sudan for (19) months, charting a future path for sustainable peace, supporting democratic transition, in addition to
following up on the implementation of policies in coordination with the relevant authorities in the State Department as well as local and international partners.”
Stopping the War
Journalist and political analyst Abu Obeida Barghouth stated in regards to the efforts of the new US Envoy for Sudan, “The available international options became clear.”
Barghouth expressed his belief in a statement to (Erem News) that the new US Envoy for Sudan will succeed in the mission of stopping the war, “Because the Trump Administration would most likely put forth intensive efforts in this regard, especially since US policy seems to support stability and stopping wars in the region.”
He explained that there are numerous indications of the new US Envoy’s intent to succeed in the mission of stopping the war, amongst which is the presence of other countries in the region that wish to end the conflicts plaguing the region.
Abu Obeida pointed out that the Syrian model conveys the true extent of the world’s aversion to war, how it seeks stability in order to benefit from resources, trade exchange and continued economic benefit.
He added, “The new Envoy’s first directives will be to pressure the conflicting parties to enter into negotiations, and if one party refuses, the options of imposing peace by force will be the most likely scenario.”
The US policy during the era of US President Joe Biden failed to put an end to the war in Sudan despite Washington’s appointment of a Special Envoy for Khartoum, Tom Perriello, who sought to accomplish that goal for (8) months, working with the Sudanese parties. Unfortunately, in the end he failed to make any breakthrough in regards to the crisis.
As soon as Trump announced his victory in the US presidency, the Sudanese parties rushed to congratulate him on the victory, announcing their willingness to work with him to end the war in the country.
Journalist and political analyst Barghouthpointed out that the Biden Administration was unable to force the parties to the Sudanese conflict to stop the war through negotiations, indicating that the Rapid Support Forces showed flexibility in dealing with international and regional initiatives, while the Sudanese Army continued to reject all calls for a ceasefire.
He added that “The previous Envoy didn’t only encounter obstacles, but was also faced with absolute rejection and intransigence from the Sudanese Army in regards to the peace process. Hence, the new American Envoy needs to pressure (the Sudanese Army Commander-in-Chief Abdel Fattah) Al-Burhan into going to negotiations, and I believe he has the ability to accomplish that.”
Barghouth noted that Al-Burhan continued to adopt an evasive approach; as he initially gives the green light, then backs down under pressure from the group of former President Omar al-Bashir’s regime, considering that the former regime seeks to legitimize his representation of Sudan to ensure its return to power, despite the difficulty of achieving that.
Washington’s Interests
On the other hand, political analyst Ammar Al-Baqir downplayed the possible effectiveness of the expected American Envoy in making a breakthrough in the Sudanese file, indicating that stopping the war according to the current realities is still out of reach.
Al-Baqir told (Erem News) that the overlapping international interests in Sudan paralyze the United States’ ability to impose peace by forcing the warring parties to go to negotiations.
He predicted that the Army will continue to evade negotiation initiatives without Washington being able to force its compliance.
He added that “The history of every war the Army has fought against Rebel Movements in South Sudan and Darfur doesn’t indicate its desire to end the war through negotiations.”
Political analyst Ammar Al-Baqir pointed out that the new US Envoy will attempt to pressure the warring parties to reach an agreement that is in line with US interests in the region, indicating that Washington has yet to feel any harmful repercussions resulting from the continuation of the conflict in Sudan.
