Experts: Al-Burhan is preparing to meet Russia’s demands in exchange for the veto. What does it want?
Experts reported that the Sudanese Army Commander-in-Chief, Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, is preparing to meet Russia’s demands in exchange for its use of the veto in the Security Council to obstruct a UN Draft Resolution aimed at ending the war in Sudan.
The experts shared in statements to (Erem News) website that Al-Burhan won’t hesitate to grant Russia a Military Base on the Red Sea, in addition to enabling it to control the country’s gold production, according to them.
On the 18th of November, Russia thwarted the issuance of a UN Resolution by the Security Council calling for an end to the war in Sudan after using the veto, in line with Al-Burhan’s desire, who refuses to end the conflict.
Al-Burhan shared in his statements that the “Russian veto” was in coordination with his government, and that Sudan didn’t agree to the British Draft Resolution because it was inappropriate, violated Sudan’s Sovereignty and failed to meet the Army’s demands.
Al-Burhan announced that he won’t participate in the negotiations, and that the fighting will continue until the Rapid Support Forces are eliminated, whilst the RSF currently control more than half of Sudan’s territory.
Although Al-Burhan confirmed that the “Russian veto” came in coordination with him, it is still unknown what compensation the Sudanese Army Commander-in-Chief has offered or will offer to Russia in return for the support provided.
The Glitter of Gold
Political analyst Ammar Al-Baqir explained that the “Russian veto” that came in Al-Burhan’s favor isn’t free, as in the context of international relations there are no free positions, and all decisions of major countries are based on interests.
He told (Erem News) that if the Russian veto used in the Security Council was based on an understanding with the de facto government in Sudan, then the counterpart promised by Al-Burhan is likely to be the establishment of a Military Base on the Red Sea coast, in addition to gold resources, as most of its production areas have come under the control of the Army.
Al-Baqir explained that establishing a Military Base on the Red Sea has been a Russian dream since the rule of former President Omar Al-Bashir, as Moscow concluded an agreement with Khartoum at the time. However, the fall of Al-Bashir’s regime led to the postponement of the construction of the base.
He added that “Russia, despite not obtaining the base, still hopes for a weak authority in Sudan that will grant it what it needs to strengthen its logistical presence in the Red Sea. As Russia realized Al-Burhan with his fragile authority only seeks to remain in power, and is looking for someone to help achieve that goal and spare him the international condemnation.”
However, Al-Baqir points out that Al-Burhan doesn’t have the legitimacy necessary to make such decisions, but as a de facto ruler, he can grant Russia the bases. However, when a legitimate government rule Sudan, it will invalidate Al-Burhan ’s decisions and Russia -in turn- will lose the privileges it has obtained, according to him.
He pointed out that Russia also wishes to obtain gold, explaining that the Army currently controls the gold-producing areas in the states of “River Nile, Northern, and Red Sea,” which are among the richest areas. There are several Russian companies working in gold prospecting under the protection of the Army.
The Seat of Power
For his part, security analyst Adel Bashir explained in a statement to (Erem News) that Al-Burhan is willing to meet Russia’s demands in exchange for the latter’s support for him in light of the world’s stance against him in the UN Security Council.
Bashir agreed with Al-Baqir’s statement conveying that Russia seeks to obtain a Naval Base on the Sudanese coast overlooking the Red Sea, as it has previously attempted numerous times to achieve this goal. However, the changing circumstances in Sudan prevented it from implementing its desire to establish a Military Base.
He pointed out that Russia realizes that Al-Burhan cannot provide it with this Naval Base, due to the illegitimacy of his representation of Sudan, which prevents him from making such decisions. He explained that Sudan’s membership in the African Union is still suspended as a result of the Military Coup against the Transitional government headed by Abdullah Hamdok, before the ongoing war led to a comprehensive constitutional collapse in the country.
He added that “Al-Burhan won’t hesitate to sell all of Sudan’s wealth in order to maintain his power, while Russia cares about its interests and doesn’t care about supporting Al-Burhan and in turn obstructing the choices of the Sudanese people.” Al-Burhan is expected to face further global rejection if he continues to insist on boycotting negotiating platforms to stop the war. He may also be subject to personal sanctions due to violations related to the continuation of the war, especially the aerial bombardment targeting civilians, infrastructure, and vital facilities such as water sources.
Experts told (Erem News) that countries that support the UN Resolution -that Russia managed to obstruct- may consider implementing it through regional and African mechanisms. At the same time, Russia is seeking to invite other countries to obstruct these measures, which could lead to Sudan becoming an arena for international and regional conflict.
