A homeland without a national Army: Is Sudan being hijacked by militias?

An Introduction:

Sudan has witnessed profound transformations since the outbreak of the civil war on April 15th, 2023. These transformations have been reflected in the formation of regional, tribal and ethnic armed militias, and the increasing influence of Islamist battalions and extremist religious groups. What began as a war described by Army Commander-in-Chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan two days after its outbreak as “absurd” quickly turned into a struggle for power and control over the State.

Since then, Al-Burhan’s discourse has changed several times, until he ended up adopting the views of the Islamists, who are suspected of being involved in igniting the war. While some believe the Army is seeking to impose its control with one hand, the emerging reported field information reflect a complex situation that threatens to undermine national cohesion and plunge the country into a spiral of violence and chaos.

Reality of the Militarization of Civilian Life and the Growth of Militias:

During the transitional period that followed the fall of Al-Bashir’s regime through a popular revolution, Sudan seemed to be on its way to transitioning to civilian rule, and serious steps were taken to eliminate the presence of armed militias as well as integrate them into a single national Army after achieving comprehensive peace and national reconciliation that excludes no one. However, Al-Burhan’s coup on October 25th, 2021, aborted those hopes, re-established the militias, and these paramilitary forces began to expand, benefiting from direct and indirect support from the Army.

Unofficial estimates indicate the existence of approximately (40) tribal militias currently, spread across various states of Sudan, in addition to the militias and battalions associated with the Islamic Movement and the shadow battalions, which are the most influential and dangerous.

Observers confirm that the militarization of civilian life and the establishment of armed militias contributed to returning Sudan to the eras prior to the inauguration of the modern State, and led to the dismantling of the social fabric and the division of citizens on tribal and ideological grounds. These people view this approach as an existential threat to the country’s stability and as amplifying societal divisions that could develop into long-term conflicts.

An Example of the Danger Militias Pose in Threatening Security and Stability:

On the 19th of September, last year, an Army Force clashed with a militia known as the “Alliance of Eastern Sudan Parties and Movements” in the Red Sea state, a militia established by the Military Intelligence in the city of Port Sudan, and its leadership was assigned to Shiba Dirar, an uneducated person with a criminal record in the city, his militia includes a few members of his tribe (the Hadandawa).

The clash occurred when the militia set up checkpoints in the “Deem Madina” area to extort citizens and drivers of commercial vehicles and trucks, leding to a violent clash that terrified citizens, in which heavy weapons were used.

Last week, specifically on the 4th of November, the Security Committee of En-Nahud locality in West Kordofan state issued a decision to impose a curfew from (6 pm to 6 am), with the closure of markets and shops, against the backdrop of bloody clashes between Police and Reserve Forces, which are tribal militias whose members are mostly from the (Hamar) tribe. These militias support the Sudanese Army in its war against the Rapid Support Forces.

The clashes resulted in the death of a police officer and two militia leaders. According to the account of the Reserve Forces militia leader, “Hamad Al-Safi”, the issue began when a militia member tried to seize a police car, in response to orders from the state security committee to use government vehicles in military operations, however, the police member refused to comply, which sparked the issue. The dispute developed into an exchange of fire, resulting in deaths and injuries on both sides.

The aforementioned incidents, and many others, reveal the extent of the independence that tribal and regional militias have come to enjoy, which have begun to impose their authority in ways independent of State institutions. It also shows the blatant failure of the Security Services to control irregular armed militias, which led to a disintegration and destabilization within the regular security and military services.

The Danger of the Islamic Militias’ Control:

In addition to the tribal militias, the Islamic militias and battalions, known as Shadow Battalions, the most famous of which is “Al-Baraa Ibn Malik Brigade”, have emerged as influential forces whose military capabilities exceed those of the official army. These battalions, armed with the latest weapons from drones to guided missiles and advanced communication devices, represent an imminent threat to the stability of the country, especially since they operate with an independent authority and can influence the Army’s decisions due to their influence within the Military establishment and the Intelligence Service.

Although the number of these Islamic militias and battalions is unknown, observers believe that they play a pivotal role in the battles, which makes them a real challenge to the Army. With the increasing influence of these groups, citizens are now facing a direct threat to their security, while the Army appears weak in the face of increasing challenges from its allies affiliated with the Islamists as well as other religious and tribal groups.

The Dimensions of Al-Burhan’s Strategy:

Some observers point out that Al-Burhan is relying on a dangerous strategy of balancing one militia with another, in order to maintain his influence amidst intertwined internal conflicts. He seeks to keep all parties under his control to ensure his role as a judge and arbitrator, but this strategy weakens the State and opens the door to chaos. Instead of building a strong national Army that unites the country, Al-Burhan finds himself surrounded by warring militias, and supports their various formations to achieve -not only- an unsettling, but further unsustainable, balance that will inevitably turn against him in the near future.

These observers describe this strategy as dangerous, saddling the country’s security with unprecedented challenges, as chaos, fanaticism, tribal and religious loyalties prevail at the expense of the laws and Sovereignty of the national State.

In Conclusion:

The Army’s establishment and sponsorship of tribal, ethnic, and regional militias, in addition to its alliance with ideological and religious battalions and extremist racist groups, the militarization of civilian life, arming civilians, and involving them in the war; constitute an imminent threat to security and stability in Sudan.

This approach not only exposes the country to the risk of disintegration, but also increases the likelihood of severe societal divisions, putting Sudan on the threshold of a critical stage that requires a comprehensive review to preserve the unity and stability of the State.

The Army’s dangerous transformation from a national Army that includes all Sudanese components to a complex network of militias, tribal and ideological armed arms portend dire consequences that threaten the stability of the country and the security of its citizens, tearing apart its social fabric and transforming it from a unified national State to a failed State of scattered militias without Sovereignty.