El Fasher – The Beginning of the End

The city of El-Fasher possesses a significant geostrategic location, as it forms a link between several countries, including Chad, Libya, Egypt and Sudan. In addition, the city is adjacent to the Kordofan region and the borders of northern Sudan. It also represents an important cultural meeting point, as it combines Francophone and Anglo-Egyptian influences, as well as being a meeting location for farmers and herders from different backgrounds.

El-Fasher combines the influences of the Sahara Desert in Libya and the rich and poor savannah, expressing the overlap between the African and Arab dimensions. Moreover, the city carries important historical and cultural symbolism as an administrative and political center of the Sultanate in Darfur, which makes some call it “El-Fasher the Sultan.”

Military Developments:

In light of the recent developments on the military front and the airstrikes on its military headquarters, which in turn raises many questions, in addition to the repeated attempts of the Rapid Support Forces to seize the city, we can observe several conclusions:

The First Scenario:

If the city of El-Fasher falls into the hands of the Rapid Support Forces, this may represent an important step in achieving the strategy of the Islamic Movement aimed at separating the Darfur region from Sudan. This development may pave the way for the declaration of the Darfur State, which may find regional and international support if the Forces are able to control the entire region.

This is likely to lead to confrontations within the Sudanese Army between the Military and Security authorities on the one hand, and its allies from the Joint Forces on the other hand, which may result in the disintegration of the partnership supporting the military solution. The recent incident of the escape of the Intelligence Chief, in addition to the clashes and assassinations within the leadership of the Sixth Division in El-Fasher, as reported in the news, is an indication of this scenario, which may pave the way for the second scenario.

The Second Scenario:

If the battles around El-Fasher continue and the city holds out, this may enhance the influence of non-Islamist officers within the military establishment and reduce the influence of officers of the former regime. El Fasher’s steadfastness in the face of the Rapid Support Forces’ attacks will represent the steadfastness of the Juba Peace Agreement and its partners. The collapse of the city won’t only reflect the collapse of the Juba Peace Agreement, but may also indicate the beginning of the end of Sudan in its old form